I almost couldn't believe my eyes...
This morning, in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and lead medical spokesperson for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said COVID-19 IS REALLY GOING TO END UP BEING LIKE A BAD FLU SEASON.
Now, I know you didn't hear this on the news (even FOX), or see it on Drudge.
All I see there is gloom, despair and agony... Mounting death tolls... Crisis and panic.
Then I saw this...
+ + BREAKING NEWS: Dr. Fauci: COVID-19 "akin" to "severe seasonal influenza"
TODAY, in the NEJM (perhaps the leading medical journal in the nation), Dr. Fauci stated very clearly that the mortality rate for COVID-19 is going to be much lower than we've feared. First, he writes that the "case mortality rate" (# deaths / # confirmed cases) in Wuhan, China is 1.4%. Then he adds:
"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968)" (emphasis added).
Let me translate...
Dr. Fauci is saying that the "clinical consequences" of COVID-19 are really like a bad flu season.
The FEAR MEDIA and the government pushed us to societal lockdown based on the heavily promoted fear of a 3% mortality rate for COVID-19. But that was the very early morality ratio (what Fauci called the "case mortality rate"). Yet the experts know that there are LOTS OF PEOPLE who have (or had) COVID-19 but will never be sick enough to even be tested. So that's why Fauci says:
"If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases."
So what is "several times"? We don't know for sure, but here are some data and some guesses of late:
- A study found that 86% in Wuhan during the first weeks of the outbreak were infected but never tested (6 out of 7 people).
- Italian authorities said this week that as high as 9 out of 10 have COVID-19 but have not been tested.
- A new model out of England theorizes that half of the U.K. could already have been infected.
You can read Fauci's piece in the NEJM here.
Do you remember two weeks ago, when an Ohio health official guesstimated that 100,000 Ohioans already had COVID-19? It's quite possible that she was correct. This morning's count in Ohio? 704 cases and 11 deaths. Why is the number so low if 100k had the disease? Because we know that the vast majority of people who have COVID-19 don't know it and will likely never be tested because their symptoms aren't bad enough! Let's say the 100,000 estimate was ten times too high and the actual number of people infected in Ohio two weeks ago was 10,000. Then your current mortality RATE (11 / 10,000) is... .1% -- a bad flu season.
Then what's the story behind outbreaks in New York and other hot spots? Yes, urban centers are going to get hit hard, but the hospitalization rate for COVID-19 is almost the same as that for influenza. Those areas may need strong quarantine, but not the entire nation! My state of Virginia is in lockdown over 391 cases and 9 deaths. For comparison, since March 1, about 5,000 people have died in Virginia of other causes. And yet we've shut down almost the entire state!
Let me be clear... I'm not saying COVID-19 isn't a threat. Even if the government didn't mandate the shutdown/lockdown we are now experiencing, you SHOULD take precautions and you SHOULD especially protect the elderly and, more specifically, the elderly with health complications.
But if Dr. Fauci is writing TODAY that the "overall clinical consequences" are probably more like a really bad flu season, why are we suspending basic civil liberties (like travel and going to the movies and going to church), and closing businesses, and causing MILLIONS to lose their jobs, which is forcing us to pile on TRILLIONS more in government debt?!?!
So here's what I'm asking you to do today...
+ + Action Item: Let's Get America Working Again!
If you agree with this analysis that, yes, COVID-19 is serious but as President Trump said, the "cure" of economic destruction is getting worse than the "problem," then I'm asking you to sign Grassfire's "Get America Working Again" petition:
If you don't agree with that, can you and I agree that we all need information? It's always dangerous when ALL information sources seem to point in one direction! So, I'm asking all our team members to:
- VISIT our "CounterDrudge" page regularly for resources you won't see from the media;
- BOOKMARK our Coronavirus Resource page for more information, including all the latest COVID-19 numbers, a state impact map, etc.
If you haven't yet taken our Coronavirus Impact Survey, please do so today. Yesterday, I read through all the comments from our team members and it was fascinating. The feedback was so thoughtful and interesting and also quite varied as we all try to find our way through this crisis. I have an even deeper respect and appreciation for the Grassfire team!
Finally, THANK YOU for being part of the Grassfire team. Sometimes, we feel like the "canary in the coal mine," as we speak out what we see -- often far ahead of the national media. And thank you for your continued prayers for our nation, our leaders and those directly affected by this virus.
God Bless America!