What? Total U.S. Deaths DOWN 10% In March From Prior Years, Further Raising Question Of COVID Impact

According to data obtained from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Surveillance System website, total U.S. deaths for the first three weeks of March are DOWN 10% from the average of the prior four years for the same three week period.

The average for weeks 9 through 11 for the four prior years was a total of 170,555 deaths. For weeks 9 through 11 this year, the total is 153,015, meaning 17,540 fewer people died in America during the first three weeks of March than could be reasonably expected. And the gap between historic deaths and weekly deaths is widening. For week 11, just 47,655 Americans died, 8,773 and 15% fewer than the average for week 11 in the prior four years. And while data on week 12 is not complete, it is trending similar to week 11 and will likely be down by 15% (around 8,700 deaths less than expected) even though 1,919 COVID-19 deaths were reported (in week beginning 3/22).

+ + 26,000 Fewer U.S. Deaths In March

The final data for March could show a total of 26,000 or more FEWER DEATHS in the month than would be expected without even factoring in the impact of 4,000 COVID deaths.

And the decrease in March this year is a change from prior months. Comparing the CDC data for this flu season leading up to week 9 (week 40 from 2019 through week 8 of this year) to the average of the prior four years shows almost the same totals. This season's death total is actually up 3.5% over the average of the prior four years. Then the death totals plummet in March.

Of course, it is possible that increasing death totals from COVID-19 will change the numbers as April's data is collected, but there is strong evidence that this will not be the case. First, anecdotally, we are hearing reports from hospitals across the country that hospital visits are down and hospitals are laying off staff. A Yale doctor wrote a NYTimes op-ed on this subject entitled "Where have all the heart attacks gone?" After noting that his fellow doctors are wondering where the heart attacks and strokes have gone, the doctor references an "informal twitter poll" that found "almost half of the respondents reported that they are seeing a 40 percent to 60 percent reduction in admissions for heart attacks; about 20 percent reported more than a 60 percent reduction."

This doctor's theory is that people are staying away from the hospital, which may be the case (since they scared us to death and since logic dictates that hospitals are now the main VECTOR of transmission for COVID-19). But there may be another reason we may not see an increase of total U.S. deaths, even during the expected peak in April.

+ + Very little net increase in mortality from COVID-19

Some analyzing the data in Europe are noting that overall mortality across the pond hasn't risen much, raising questions as to what the true death toll (actual net increase of deaths more than would be expected) of the virus will be. Even Neil Ferguson, the oft-quoted mastermind behind the doomsday (and wildly false) prediction that 2.2 million Americans and 500,000 Brits would die from COVID-19, admits as such. When downgrading his projected death total from COVID from 500k to 20,000 in the U.K., Ferguson then noted that the net impact on overall mortality will be "substantially lower." In fact, Ferguson said those who could be expected to die even without COVID-19 "might be as much as half or two thirds of the deaths we see, because these are people at the end of their lives or who have underlying conditions.”

In other words, the U.K. is locked down for a NET increase of as little as 6,600 or so deaths. Nobody wants to say it, but even Ferguson admits that the vast majority of those dying from COVID-19 would likely have died within the year anyways. There, we said it. 

 


Showing 10 reactions

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  • Dave Price
    commented 2020-07-16 10:40:24 -0400
    i actually am looking for information like this, as nothing on the cdc or internet just shows actual monthly deaths in the usa for 2019 or 2020. everything is smeared over, mixed up. then spit back out as FEAR THE COVID… but if you actually had info that when i went to the link you said showed something or even a screen shot of where you got it as the one link was sabotaged, (i think) landing on it was a big disclaimer that did not let me do anything. i minimize the page to 80% as scrolling was disabled and then i could continue. i found the same useless info on that page Kearnu found.
  • Kearnu Larsen
    commented 2020-07-09 17:40:08 -0400
    I’m sorry, but where do you get these Weekly Total Deaths numbers from? The link goes to flu and pneumonia deaths not Total Deaths…
  • Nicholas Ortega
    commented 2020-05-21 20:55:22 -0400
    Have you look at the CDC lately they are including Pneumonia and Influenza deaths as part of the total. Not just confirmed cases! SO what happens to those that normally die of influenza and pneumonia every year? that’s total to be adding to the death count! not only that would explain why the US death toll is higher than other countries!
  • Troy Hoffman
    commented 2020-05-13 18:30:35 -0400
    You need to update this. The statistics weren’t complete when you crunched the numbers. When the article was written, week 11 was at 47,655. It’s now, as of May 13, at 54,704. The overall deaths for weeks 9 to 11 went from 153,015 to 168,459. Yes, this is less than the same 3 weeks last year by 5,865 (about 3%), but that can be attributed to the Covid-19 safety measures taken causing a decrease in other causes of deaths, such as traffic fatalities and other infectious diseases.

    That said, if you look at weeks 14, 15, and 16, the numbers paint a completely different story. In the 2018-19 season, there were a total of 166,534 deaths in the US during these three weeks. This year, the number was 198,488. That’s an increase of 31,954 for the 3 weeks, or about 19%. The number will likely go up slightly since April’s data is not fully collected, but it should be pretty close. When accounting for the decrease in other causes of deaths due to lock downs, this puts us around equal to the official death tolls.

    This isn’t a hoax. It’s real. People are dying from it. If it weren’t for concerts, festivals, and amusement parks being shut down; social distancing; facial coverings; and stay-at-home orders, April’s deaths could easily have been in the hundreds of thousands just in the US.
  • Tricia Chambers
    commented 2020-04-26 13:43:59 -0400
    This is so misleading. As of March 15, Covid-19 has just infected the 1st round of people in the U.S. See tracking of the virus spread here https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html On March 1, only 30 people were infected (at least confirmed) in the entire country. It takes up to 2 weeks for those 30 people to show symptoms! So how is this number convincing?
  • Steve Ray
    commented 2020-04-11 05:02:55 -0400
    The March 2020 statistics aren’t complete yet, as per the massive disclaimers at the CDC website,

    Please re-read the source data and slap a correction on this article — you have made a mistake and are drawing mistaken conclusions from it.
  • Kat Hanners
    commented 2020-04-08 22:37:33 -0400
    Not only that Philip, if the death is reported as Covid-19 the Gov. guarantees to pay the bill if necessary.
  • Philip Faustman
    commented 2020-04-08 22:32:25 -0400
    All deaths are being reported as Covid-19 naturally. They want to set a new precedent of government lockdown and compliance. This is just a test run and we see politicians going way overboard with abuse of power. Prepare!
  • Ralph Cornforth
    commented 2020-04-07 17:11:06 -0400
    I’m guessing that normal flu deaths are down. The precautions we are taking against COVID19 will also work to protect us against all diseases we can catch from others.
  • Pat Blair
    followed this page 2020-04-07 12:16:44 -0400