Here's the growing evidence of tests that show that COVID-19 is not as deadly or dangerous as we've been told/sold

(Initially published 4/23/20)
Despite the hysteria, Grassfire has maintained from the outset of this crisis that the data revealed that COVID-19 was not as deadly or dangerous to the general population as we have been told/sold. All the evidence indicated that the lethality profile was overwhelmingly focused on those with co-morbidities and the elderly. Also, we argued that the initial reports of 3-4% fatality rate grossly overstated the actual infection fatality rate (IFR) which appeared to be closer to the flu or a pandemic flu season.

Here is a summary of the recent studies.

Antibody testing

Antibody testing determines whether a person already has had COVID-19. The testing is revealing that COVID-19 is highly infectious (with many more asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic cases than confirmed cases), with a much lower IFR of .12-.37%.

• SUMMARY CHART OF ANTIBODY TESTS SHOWING MEDIAN .38% FATALITY RATE
  
  
• (5/11) Arizona serology tests show 3.3% already-infected rate, 25x captured cases, app. .2% infection fatality rate
• (5/1) IRAN antibody 21-33% have been infected; .1% fatality rate
  • Study here
• (5/1) JAPAN antibody infection rate 400-800x more than reported cases
• (4/30) ITALY antibody infection rate 61%
• (4/24) Miami-Dade (FL) antibody testing shows 15x more infections, est .2% fatality rate
  • Miami-Herald  • Reason.com
• New York State --
  • (4/27) New York releases updated antibody test results
    
    • 14.9% of state positive; 25% in NY
  • (4/23) NY Antibody test finds 10x more infections; 21% prior infection rate in NYC, 13.9% statewide
  • Ticker Guy -- "That's ENOUGH: Open NOW
• (4/21/20) Update on Colorado antibody testing -- 1-2% infected in rural town
  • (Original -- 4/8/20) CO county has extensive antibody testing suggesting minimum .8% of gen pop infected, likely much more
• (4/20/20) Los Angeles, CA -- Finds 28-55x more cases that confirmed cases; .13%-.27% IFR
• (4/18/20) France Antibody test of school in Paris -- 25% prior infection rate; no deaths 
• (4/14/20) Santa Clara, CA -- finds 50-85x more cases than confirmed; .12%-.2% IFR
  • Article
  • Interview with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya (video),
  • Dr. John Ioannidis explains (Video)
• (4/17/20) Chelsea MA antibody test: 32% prior infection rate, .3% IFR
• (4/9/20) Gangelt, Germany -- 14% prior infection rate; .37% IFR
  • Head of German study that found 14% prior infection rate and .37% fatality rate defends study
  • News report (original in German)
• (4/8/20) DENMARK: antibody test reveals .21% fatality rate estimate
  • Testing in Scotland and Finland indicates lower IFR than Denmark, but more testing needed

High mild or asymptomatic rates

• 96% of 3,000 inmates asymptomatic
• Asymptomatic cases on Diamond Princess were NEARLY 50% of the total
• 88% of COVID-positive pregnant women were ASYMPTOMATIC (NYC)
  • New England Journal Of Medicine study
• NEW STUDY: 78% of COVID positives HAVE NO SYMPTOMS
  • If this is confirmed "What the hell are we locking down for?"
• FoxNews: HALF of all cases have "NO SYMPTOMS
• Iceland testing: 1% of random sample infected; HALF of infected show little or no symptoms

Other testing/analysis

• Analysis: Herd immunity happens FASTER than thought
  • " the true herd immunity threshold probably lies somewhere between the 7% and 24%" of population infected
• STUDY: MASKS DON'T WORK
• 66% OF NY new patients sheltered at home!
• WSJ: Do lockdowns save lives? The data says NO
• CORNELL STUDY: Only limited-time quarantine of high-risk is needed; rest economy remains operational
• Study: "these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe"
  • study here
• (4/23) Delaware POOP study reveals 15x more infected than confirmed cases
• Study: OUTDOORS is better than INDOORS
• STUDY-- All COVID outbreaks occurred INDOORS!
• DHS Study: COVID struggles against higher temperatures, light, higher humidity (i.e. summer)
  killed within 2 minutes on surfaces, 1.5 seconds in air in warm climates
  
  • Fox & Friends report
  • Data
  • Gateway Pundit article
  • But we've actually known this since 3/18 (study)
  • William Bryan (DHS) video
• Austrian analysis: COVID death risk rates correspond to regular death risk rates
• Interesting study on the Diamond Princess
  • Just 14% tested positive in a closed environment of primarily older people
  • Asymptomatic cases on Diamond Princess were NEARLY 50% of the total
• Rise in Influenza-Like Illnesses (ILI) could indicate 28m already have had COVID-19; fatality rate of .1%
  • Tweet
  • Article
  • Actual study: Abstract; .pdf
• Study suggests just 1.6% of U.S. COVID cases were reported on 3/31
• Analysis of nosocomial spread hospitals and nursing homes
• New study: infection mortality rate in China actually .66% 
• French study: COVID-19 has similar mortality rate as other coronaviruses
• (4/10/20) Johnson County, KS -- 3.8% active
• What? 88% of those in NYC who end up on ventilators from COVID die
• Analysis of effectiveness of school closures finds very inconclusive results (pdf here)

Disproportionate impact on the elderly, those with co-morbidities

• CDC data confirms deaths OVERWHELMINGLY in older population, just .12% under 25
  • raw data here
  • GF chart
• Shock (not): your health is the biggest risk factor with COVID
  • 94% of NY hospitalized patients had at least one co-morbidity; 88% had two
  • study is here
• Nursing homes a MAIN VECTOR of transmission and death
  • 17% off all COVID deaths in NY state (just .5% of population)
  • 48% of COVID deaths in Iowa (just .7% of population)
  • 40% of NJ deaths from nursing homes
  • 11% nationwide
• NYC Data Confirms COVID targets elderly, those with pre-existing conditions (Grassfire)
  • 99% of COVID fatalities have pre-existing conditions (Gateway Pundit features Grassfire)
  • Enough of the lies, folks!
  • NYC report lists key high risk co-morbidities: Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney Disease or Liver Disease

Less impact under 25; very little mortality in children

• CDC data confirms deaths OVERWHELMINGLY in older population, just .12% of deaths under 25
  • raw data here
  • GF chart
• Stanford Professor: under 65 death risk about same as driving a car 400 miles
• Italy: not one child under 10 got virus; Berenson tweet; research
• Australia study: children less likely to transmit COVID; no incidence of children to adult transmission in test
  • Appeal to get kids back to school
    • "COVID-19 is not the flu. Far fewer children are affected by COVID-19, and the number of transmissions from children to children and children to adults is far less."
• French study indicates infected child did not spread COVID to other kids, but did spread flu
  • Study: "The fact that an infected child did not transmit the disease despite close interactions within schools suggests potential different transmission dynamics in children."
• Iceland: more evidence school shutdown unnecessary:
  • "even if children do get infected, they are less likely to transmit the disease to others than adults. We have not found a single instance of a child infecting parents."
  • dropping school restrictions
• Norway: school closures don't help
  
  • "The overall negative effects of keeping schools closed are much greater than the potential benefit of limiting the spread of infection."
• Same in Switzerland