The liberal media has been working overtime for months trying to convince Americans that President Trump can't win. They roll out polls showing a landslide victory for Biden, yet they ignore the compelling evidence that shows President Trump CAN and WILL win!
Here, we review the TOP TEN REASONS TRUMP CAN AND WILL WIN!
--Steve Elliott, Grassfire
#10 -- The polls are moving Trump's way... fast
The polls have been wrong... again. After months of showing an overwhelming lead for Biden, all the polls are tightening and the most accurate polls from 2016 are forecasting a Trump victory. Rasmussen reported on 10/26 that President Trump now leads 48-47 in their national poll, a four-point swing from one week ago and a 12-point Biden advantage just two weeks ago.
But the national polls are far less important than the state-level polls, and Trafalgar Group (the other most accurate polling group from 2016) is showing President Trump surging in the key battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina). National Review interviewed the head of Trafalgar, Robert Calahay. According to NR, Calahay says:
- The likeliest Trump electoral path to victory involves winning the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and either Michigan or Pennsylvania among the former Blue Wall states (assuming he doesn’t lose states such as Iowa or Ohio). This is Cahaly’s breakdown: He believes Trump will win North Carolina and Florida and discounts Biden’s chances in Georgia because the Republican-base vote is too big there (the same is true in Texas). ... Overall, Cahaly sees another Trump win. “If it all happened right now,” he maintains, “my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high to 270s, low 280s.”
For the best analysis of WHY the polls are wrong, read this.
Also, despite the media's spin that President Trump is the most hated president ever, this simply is not true. Rasmussen's daily presidential approval tracking poll showed that 52% of Americans approve of the president's job, which is FOUR POINTS HIGHER than Barack Obama just one week from his re-election. (See data here).
#9 -- A strong majority say they are better off today than four years ago
A very revealing Gallup poll provides the best evidence that Trump's support is and will be much greater than the media is letting on. Ever since Reagan framed the 1980 presidential race by asking Americans, "Are you better off than you were four years ago," Gallup has been asking the question each election cycle. In prior years in which an incumbent was up or reelection and Gallup asked the question, the percentages for the incumbents were 44% (Reagan), 38% (Bush), 47% (Bush W), and 45% (Obama). No incumbent president has registered higher than 50% "are you better off" percentage... until President Trump!
What is Trump's number? 56%. That's far better than any prior president since Gallup has been asking the question. And here's the clincher: Prior to the COVID crisis, 61% of Americans said they were better off today than four years ago. So, even though the COVID shutdown has resulted in extreme economic hardship as well as loss of life, a strong majority of Americans still say they are better off. And that will translate at the polls.
#8 -- The economy is surging and elections are about the economy... stupid
The President promised a "V-shaped" recovery from the devastating COVID shutdown, and it's happening... at least where governors are allowing their states to fully re-open! As of this writing, economists are expecting Third Quarter GDP numbers to show a 30% growth rate -- almost a perfect "V" from the 30% decline.
Americans understand that our nation and the world faced an unprecedented pandemic shutdown that stifled the economy. In the midst of it, President Trump said the "cure can't be worse than the disease" and insisted that our nation's economy get moving again. Because he pushed, we are recovering. Only hard-left partisans will hold the initial economic downturn against him. The economy is surging.
#7 -- Most think Trump will win and think their neighbor is voting for Trump!
More important than who you want to win is who you think your neighbors are voting for. Some analysts think this is a more accurate "poll" because your brain does an instant analysis of hundreds or even thousands of human impressions in a split second to come to a conclusion of who your neighbors are voting or and who will win.
Thus, instead of a survey of one, these broader, objective, questions indirectly survey thousands upon thousands of inputs. On both counts -- who voters think will win and who they think their neighbors are voting for -- Trump wins. Recent polling shows Trump leads 49%-38% when people are asked who their neighbor is voting for. And on who they think will win? It's not even close -- Trump trumps Biden 56%-40% according to Gallup.
There's good reason most people think Trump will win. According to American Thinker, here are the demographics in which the President's support is increasing:
- Republican Support: 77% (2016) vs. 96% (projected 2020). That's 10,000,000 votes!
- Evangelical Christians: 81% (2016) vs. 90% (projected 2020)
- Hispanics: 28% (2016) vs. 36.5% (projected in 2020). A potential swing of 8.8 million from 2016.
- Catholics: 45% (2016) vs. 53% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 12.4 million votes from 2016.
- Black vote: 8% (2016) vs. 15% (projected 2020). A potential swing of 6.8 million votes from 2016.
In addition, GOP party affiliation is UP over the same time in 2016 (GOP 28-27, vs. GOP 27-32 in 2016). And early voting has trended Republican FAR MORE than the pundits had projected.
#6 -- The rallies and the "lawnslide"... retail politics still matters
Early in September, I spoke with a very good friend of mine who reported to me that during a motorcycle trip through the Midwest, his personal count of Trump vs. Biden signage gave the President about a 10-to-1 advantage. "Trump signs are everywhere, Steve!" he told me. FOX Across America radio host Jimmy Failla remarked on the same trend, saying the truckers he speaks with tell him the Trump "lawnslide" advantage is more like 25:1.
Sure, that's anecdotal. And so are the Trump boat parades, and car parades, and tractor parades taking place across the country. Thousands upon thousands have taken part, with no apparent planning, coordination or support from the Trump campaign. It's a true grassroots movement.
And what about the Trump rallies? Consider the typical Trump stop with 20,000 people present. Each person attending has a circle of influence from 50-100 who will see their social media posts and hear their enthusiasm for the president. Even at 25 per person, that's a half-million real-person reach in a swing state.
It's called retail politics. And it still works. And it's not just the President. The First Lady, the VP, Don Jr., Eric, and others are out every day, pressing the flesh, winning votes. Meanwhile, Biden hides in the basement, and when he comes out, we have to wonder if he saw his own shadow because so few (if any) real people see him. (If a Biden event happens and nobody shows up, did it matter?)
Also, in a year when the COVID shutdown has limited human, in-person interactions, these rallies and parades undoubtedly have an even larger impact on the attendees. A friend of mine saw Trump in Virginia at a rally and he was blown away, perhaps in part because it's been months since any of us have been in a large gathering.
Reality vs. Virtual. Open vs. Shut. No mask vs. Mask. Engaging vs. Basement. The contrast grows clearer and clearer each day, as President Trump, in one day, speaks in person to more people that perhaps Biden has address in person since Labor Day.
#5 -- Trump has a clearer perception of self and country
If you think back on all recent presidential races, the person who wins is the candidate with the clearest SENSE OF SELF. No internal divisions. Reagan over a confounded Carter. Reagan again over forgettable Mondale. Bush over Dukakis (on the tank). Clinton over Bush (who never projected a clear sense of identity). W over Gore (before Gore found himself as a global warming crusader). "9/11 W" over Kerry. "Yes, We Can" Obama over placeholder McCain. Obama over "All I want to do is be president" Romney. Trump (love me or hate me) vs. Hillary and her many disguises.
President Trump has a clearer sense of self and country than Joe Biden. Trump speaks (for hours) from his gut. He has been remarkably consistent on his policies and positions. I think his brush with COVID (and possible death) freed him even more. Consider the difference between Trump in the first and final debates. I believe he is coming through this brush with COVID with an even clearer sense of his purpose and his mission -- to literally save America. This will come through. At the end of the day, Americans want and need leadership. Trump provides that. Brash? Yes. Bold? Yes. Politically incorrect? Certainly. But leadership nonetheless.
#4 -- The riots.
In 2015, then-candidate Trump came down the escalator and framed the entire election around the threat of illegal immigration, which set the stage for the main, enduring theme of his candidacy and presidency -- America First. The threat of illegal immigration, for most Americans, was somewhat ethereal. Most don't live in a border community. Yes, we "feel" the impact of illegal immigration, but the threat is less direct.
Fast forward to 2020. That perceived threat to our safety and security posed by illegal immigration has been replaced by a real and very personal threat to our homes, our property, our businesses and our communities posed by the rioting in the streets. These riots have gone on almost non-stop for months, and have served as the "frame" for the election.
While Biden has bet his entire campaign on COVID FEAR being the dominant issue, the polls began to shift as summer turned to fall. Now, people are more concerned with safety and the economy -- two issues that favor President Trump. Black voters overwhelmingly support the same or more police presence in their communities. That's because black voters are like other voters -- we think of our families first. We want to be safe in our homes and in our communities. As a commentator on Twitter said recently in response to a BLM violence in Philadelphia, "I see that BLM is campaigning for Trump in Pennsylvania."
#3 -- The Miracle of Middle East Peace
Almost lost in the noise of COVID and BLM and this entire crazy year has been President Trump's historic progress toward peace in the Middle East. In the span of weeks, the President's administration helped bring together three historic peace deals -- the first in decades. When they weren't ridiculing the peace agreements, the media has done its best to keep the images of peace off their websites and out of the minds of voters. Images last. Images imprint. Yet when an Arab paper leads with the bold headline, "Peace be upon all," you know something big just happened.
The peace deals were the proof of the "Trump Doctrine" that international relations must be built on the premise of each country pursuing their own best interests. President Trump announced that the United States would pursue "America First" foreign policy, and he expected and even demanded that other countries do the same. When two countries, each pursuing their own best interest, come together, the agreement can actually work and will last.
Are our international relations "better off" than they were four years ago? Go around the world and the answer is a resounding YES. The Trump Doctrine works. Americans can sense it.
#2 -- Black and Latino voters will save America
About a month prior to Election Day, four polls showed that Black voters are moving dramatically to President Trump. Support among likely Black voters ranged from 19% to 28%. These numbers are astounding, given that Trump won about 8% of the black vote in 2016. Then, about 10 days before Election Day, President Trump's approval rating among Black "likely voters" reached 44%! Trafalgar Group confirms this finding.
Why? Because despite the efforts of the cultural Marxists to fan the flames of a "race war" in America, in reality blacks, whites, and Asians actually share the same core goals of safety in their homes and streets and opportunity for the families. Polls show Blacks overwhelmingly support the same or MORE police presence in their communities -- despite the BLM noise to "defund the police." Blacks support charter schools and school choice, and they are starting to hear the message from Black leaders like Kanye West that abortion is a "systemic" holocaust against the Black community.
Trump is also resonating with Latinos, perhaps because so many are so much closer to the devastating effects of socialism in third-world Latin countries. As a result, it is quite possible that Trump could DOUBLE his Black support and add 5-10% to his Latino support. If this happens, Black and Latino voters would have played a key role in saving America.
#1 -- You!
The most important reason President Trump can and WILL win re-election is... YOU!
Your love for country and for defending America's greatness is the best and brightest hope for this land. You have learned how to bypass the liberal media's lies and search for the truth from other sources like Grassfire. You have stood tall for America when all the "opinion leaders" told you that you must hate America. You put up Trump yards signs and waved Trump flags and took part in grassroots efforts across the country.
You are the true heroes of this story, a story that is being written by millions upon millions of patriots who have been shunned by the far-Left elites and told you have no place in society.
But you've stood strong. You've held your ground. And you've defended America's greatness.
Thank you for the stand you're taking and may God bless these United States of America!
Steve Elliott, Grassfire
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